Trump and Biden, do not have the power to save the United States, this is the American tragedy
With the advent of autumn, the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the United States a great third potential outbreak, 80,000 people have been diagnosed daily average hit a record high since the outbreak. US Congress estimated that before the presidential election, would not approve the second phase of bailout funds, which makes American lower middle class families affected by the epidemic will face the most serious test of longer life.
Whether or Biden Trump, no matter who the new US president's election victory, will face the highest status quo budget deficit rate of nearly 80 years. The last time the federal government deficit ratio exceeded 100% of the time in 1931, the newly elected US president in 1932 under the direction of Roosevelt's Keynesian, through social security and tax reform, so that substantial growth in the US federal government revenue, not only the US economy has gradually brought out the plight of the recession, but also the United States into the peak of the global rights.
Whether it is the current president of Trump, or former Vice President Joe Biden, from their TV debates and effect, in addition to attack each other, but who do not have the ability to save the United States. If you can not find the right person to reform the current system, only two 70-year-old man in a relatively better option, not only the sorrow of American-style democracy, but also the United States of sorrow.
the United States is in a federal state developed on the basis of the colony, after the Civil war, the US capitalist path of development through industrialization promoted, becoming the most powerful capitalist industrialized countries. The capitalist market economic theory, government requirements to limit the impact on the economy, so that the capital can receive the maximum benefits. It is in this theoretical basis to guide the US government's revenues and expenditures in 1930, with GDP ratio of only about 10%, of which the federal government revenue and expenditure level is only about 50% of state and local government revenue and expenditure levels .
The last century Great Depression of the 1930s and World War II consequent, is a huge disaster in human history. US federal government through reform of the tax and social security system, increasing the government's sources of income, but also makes the government through more investment and consumption, the US economy will successfully freed from the mire of deflation, but also makes the United States as World War II the biggest beneficiary, and in one fell swoop replace Britain as global hegemon after World War II.
After World War II, the relationship between income and expenditure of the federal government and the US economy increasingly close. The proportion of federal government revenue to GDP remained between 15% -20%, the proportion of federal government spending to GDP is more than 20%.
2019, the US federal government current revenue of $ 3.6 trillion , current expenditures were $ 4.8 trillion budget deficit of $ 1.19 trillion. Deficit was 33%. Since Trump became US president, the US federal government budget deficit and fiscal deficit rate year by year.
March 2020, the new crown epidemic outbreak in the United States, the US Congress passed an emergency $ 2.2 trillion bailout funds the fight against SARS, the equivalent of 4.8 trillion based on 2019 expenditures on, an increase of 45 % of expenditure. A bail-out funds would chime in to tell the end of August, due to the differences between Democrats and Republicans, two bailout funds has yet to consideration by Congress, income affected most severely affected low-income families living under tremendous pressure.
If in 2019 the US federal government revenue and expenditure constant as a reference, a bail-out funds to bring expenditure growth of 45%, will make 2020 the US federal government budget deficit increased to about 90%, 2020 after years will exceed 2009, became World War II, the US federal government budget deficit of up to one year.
If two bailout funds (in accordance with the estimated 2 trillion) approved by Congress before the end of the year and put into practice, the US federal government budget deficit will likely exceed the rate of 200% over 1931 112% the highest level in nearly 80 years.
US Federal government current revenue to GDP in 1943 It reached 18.94%, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points over the previous year. Thereafter, the current federal government revenue to GDP ratio basically fluctuate between 15% to 20% level. In 2009, affected by the subprime crisis, US GDP fell by 1.79%, while the federal government revenues fell as much as 13.2%. Clearly economic fluctuations have a greater negative impact on federal revenues.
According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce, 2020 second quarter, US GDP fell by 31%. After the outbreak not yet under control, and the weather gradually into the winter, the speed of the new crown pneumonia in indoor propagation may be faster, the latest data show that single-day US confirmed cases has exceeded 80,000 people, also indicates that the new crown epidemic in the United States will enter The third wave of the outbreak. 2020 US high probability of negative economic growth has become a foregone conclusion, the US federal government revenue will be negative growth. According to pessimistic estimates, the US federal government budget deficit will likely exceed the rate of 300%.
2019, the US federal government revenue mainly consists of income tax and social security constitution, which accounted for 56.4% of income tax, social security income accounted for 38.86%. The last century, the late reform the social security system of the United States in the 1930s, making social security income to be another important source of income in addition to tax revenue the federal government.close correlation between
Income Tax and Social Security and the US economy, but also makes the federal government's current income by the impact of economic development is also growing. The Internet bubble burst and the subprime mortgage crisis has caused negative growth in both the US federal government revenue.
1943, the United States had a tax revenue reform, tax revenue substantial growth, not only the tax proportion of the US federal government tax revenue substantial growth, but also makes the US federal government revenue exceeded the state and local government revenues, so that the federal government has a greater influence in the American economy.
2019 years, the tax revenue accounted for US federal government revenue ratio was 77.09%, the US federal government is the most important source of tax revenue. The federal government revenues have accounted for more than 50% of the products and tariffs, 2019 accounted for only 15.34%.
US federal income tax and personal income (salary compensation, property income) has increasingly close ties.
US tax revenue to pay withholding divided into and reporting (tax) in two ways. Employer at the time of payment of salary, will be paying income tax based on employee wages. In addition to salary income, personal income declaration of property by the reporting system. Tax scale enterprises withholding tax is more than twice the size of a personal declaration.
employment and assets are directly influenced by the economic development of the two factors, employment directly affect the growth of withholding tax revenue, assets affected by changes in economic development on the one hand, on the other hand factors influenced investment. To pay for the income-based wage-earners, since the employer to withhold less tax avoidance space. For such as the United States President Trump billionaire concerned, through investment, donations, have more ways to tax avoidance. Trump paid $ 750 tax, only shows that the US tax system is to tax the rich can leave a lot of channels.
US social security system was reformed in 1938, the federal government Social Security income improved significantly, the proportion of GDP has increased gradually from 2% to 7%. US federal government's social security income in a sense also a new tax, employer and employee payroll at the time of payment of social security are in the public accounts and personal accounts. With different tax revenue, social security income only affected the employment rate also affected the total employed population. The beginning of the subprime crisis in 2007, while leading to a decline in tax revenue, but also brought a decline in the US federal government Social Security income. Due to the aging population and declining fertility due to the proportion of women increase, also affects the ratio of revenue to GDP of social security, under the joint action of these two factors, the proportion of the federal government Social Security revenue to GDP after 2007, always less than 7%.
during World War II, the current US federal government spending sharply, GDP growth has become the main reason, federal government spending to GDP ratio was as high as 30%. After World War II, the proportion of the current expenditure of the federal government to GDP remained at around 20%. The federal government and the different current income, the current federal government spending in 2009 of negative economic growth, but substantial growth in the scale of expenditure, the main reason is that the federal government needs to stimulate the economy and rescue businesses and individuals for more additional expenditure, 2020 in the new bail-out money it is a prime example.
after World War II, transfer payments has replaced the United States federal government consumption expenditures current period the main expenditure spending. 2019, the US federal government transfer spending accounted for 63.2%, consumer spending accounted for only 23.21 percent, far below not only during World War II, there is also a significant decline compared with the 30s of last century.
2019 United States Federal government transfer payments nearly $ 3 trillion, wherein the means for social welfare spending accounted for 77.19 percent, transfers to state and local governments pay to 20.15%. Social welfare spending is mainly composed of retirement income retirees, veterans' benefits, unemployment benefits and so on. The unemployment rate subprime mortgage crisis led to the surge in unemployment benefit period is caused by a large number of issued subprime crisis, the US federal government transfer payments mainly due to rapid growth, which also brought the rapid growth of the current federal government spending.
US federal government mainly by issuing treasury bonds to fill the government's budget deficit. 80 of the last century, 90 years, is the peak of the US federal government debt, the size of the rapid growth of interest payments, interest payments peaked at more than 30% the proportion of federal government spending. In the 21st century, the federal government paid interest on the scale there was a brief decline, beginning in 2004, showing a growth momentum. 2019, the federal government pays the interest on $ 600 billion has been displayed immediately. From the beginning of the 1970s, interest on the federal government to pay for the rest of the world accounted for the proportion of interest payments showed a gradual upward trend, which also shows the degree of dependence on the US federal government's foreign foreign capital is increasing.
thanks to a substantial increase in income tax and social security of the United States the federal government's budget deficit rate at the end of World War II, a significant decline. However, affected by inflation, the US federal government deficit ratio in 1970, 80 years have remained at around 20%. Development of information industry, making the US federal government budget deficit ratio also showed a trend of rapid decline in 2000, even a fiscal surplus. In the 21st century, by the bursting of the Internet bubble, the subprime mortgage crisis and the different factors such as international oil prices, the US federal government budget deficit rate showed relatively large fluctuations.
the affected population aging, retirement rapid population growth, the federal deficit has become a welfare fund the US federal government budget deficit a new source.
in addition to the current period expenses, investment is also part of the federal government spending. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought a sharp growth in federal government spending, it will also affect the federal government's long-term investment, so that it fell further to promote the recovery of economic growth. 2019, the US federal government net foreign borrowing size of $ 1.26 trillion, if before the end of the year, the US Congress approved a two bailout funds, the US federal government spending will reach $ 9 trillion, if the reduction in accordance with revenue 6,000 one hundred million calculations, the deficit will reach 6 trillion, the fiscal deficit ratio will reach 300%. If you do not pass the means to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, the new large fiscal deficits will lead the federal government to bear the huge debt pressure.
the 1930s and 1940s, by the recession and the impact of World War II, the US federal government budget deficit also exceeded the rate of 100%. But with the reform of social security and tax revenue, the US federal government revenue substantial growth after World War II, the deficit rate to decline significantly.
income tax and social security is the main source of federal government revenue, mainly from corporate withholding, income growth has little room up. The increase in the tax burden for businesses and wealthy revenue growth will eventually be passed on to the working-class body in the form of employment. Social security expenditure as primary expenditure of the federal government, if it will inevitably result in a significant reduction in low-income families living American pressure is further increased.
The new crown epidemic is another major blow to the US economy after the Cold War, following the bursting of the Internet bubble, the subprime mortgage crisis, international oil prices after, but also the biggest blow. America needs now is someone like Keynes economists can put forward a theory to guide and change the status quo, one like Roosevelt as president, able to change the existing system. From this perspective, whether Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, before the debate or attack each other Trump seat and Biden, do not have this ability, this is the biggest crisis in American democracy faced.